Putin and Mehmed IV

How the Russian Siege of Kyiv in 2022 is the equivalent of the Ottoman Siege of Vienna in 1683.

Putin might fashion himself as Peter I, or in general, as some kind of re-accumulator of "Russian lands", but the closest historical comparison to him I can think of is actually the Ottoman sultan Mehmed IV.

Mehmed IV ruled between 1648-1687. Like Putin he inherited a rump and weakened state, which was in decline. The beginning of his reign was chatacterized by turmoil and military setbacks. However, later during his reign the fortunes of the Ottoman Empire began to turn. Under his reign Turks conquered Crete, conducted successful military campaigns against Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and Kingdom of Hungary, thereby gaining more territory. It seemed, for a while, that the Ottoman Empire regained its military might. Everyone in Europe thought the Turkish threat is back.

However, those military successes the Ottomans enjoyed under Mehmed IV were deceptive. The Empire was already in irreversible decline and its seeming progress deeper into Europe was running on fumes. Moreover, it came on the backdrop of western-central Europe still recovering from immense devastation caused by the Thirty Years' War and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth having been knocked out concurrently by the Swedish invasion and Khmelnytsky Uprising, which altogether came to be known as "The Deluge".

The end of his reign, like its beginning, was characterized by military defeat, namely the failed Siege of Vienna in 1683, after which he was ousted. This serious setback precipitated a sequence of further military defeats for the Ottoman Empire at the hands of European coalition armies, which culminated in the Peace of Karlowitz in 1699. As a result of that treaty the Ottoman Empire, for the first time, lost a significant chunk of territory, namely in central Europe and in the Balkans. That set in motion its 200-year long retreat, which was to be characterized by continuous military defeats one after another.

Likewise during Putin's reign it also seemed that Russia has recovered from the turmoil and desperation of the 90s, has regained its military might and became a serious threat again. Such thinking could have been justified. After all, Putin spent a lot of money and resources to strengthen and modernize the Russian army, which did indeed end up being stronger than it was in the 90s. And during this time Russia in fact achieved numerous military and diplomatic victories. Invasion of Georgia in 2008, annexation of Crimea and invasion of Donbas in 2014, the military campaign in Syria in 2015-2017.

All of that was swallowed and tacitly accepted by the West, which could be seen also as diplomatic successes for Russia. Add to that the Sochi Winter Olympics 2014 and World Cup 2018. Sadly, all of that increased Russia's standing on the international arena. And importantly, all that was taking place on the backdrop of the fractured Western world grappling with its internal problems, and which seemed to have fallen into hedonistic denial and lost its ability to assert itself.

However, to keen observers and people knowledgeable about Russia it was already clear at the time that its resurgence was on a shaky footing and was rather superficial. Like the Ottoman Empire of the mid-17th century, Russia was running on fumes and all its bravado was facilitated by the temporary indecisiveness and frailty of the West rather than any systemic improvement in Russia's economy and military capabilities.

Russian attempt to subjugate Ukraine therefore must be seen as the Ottoman attempt to deal a fatal blow to the Habsburg Empire in 1683. Both of them desperate, last gasp attempts to reverse the irreversible. A failed attempt at resurgence, which was not meant to be.

Like the failed Siege of Vienna proved to be the undoing of Sultan Mehmed IV and commenced the permanent reversal of Ottoman fortunes, the failed invasion of Ukraine, and more specifically the failed Siege of Kyiv in February/March 2022, will be Putin's undoing and will make Russia's retreat and disintegration irreversible. And Putin will go down in history as the Ottoman sultan Mehmed IV. The one who futilely tried to return his decaying empire to its former might only to accelerate its inevitable collapse.