Latin American Scenario for Russian Disintegration

Russia is the Latin America of North Eurasia. An area originally inhabited by Asian peoples wherein Europeans penetrated and intermixed with the local autochtonous populations, imposing on them their language and culture in the process. The admixture took place to varying extents in different geographical regions. The same was true of Spanish America during colonization where Spaniards and later European settlers intermixed with the indigenous Amerindian populations (direct descendants of those same North Asians who were colonized by Russians, by the way). Different geographical realities and different ethnic/racial makeups of various Spanish American territories later on gave rise to different Latin American nations that we have today.

The impetus for the nation-formation process in Latin America came from the Spanish defeat at the hands of Napoleon and the subsequent occupation of Iberian Peninsula by France in the early 19th century, which led to a power vacuum in the imperial center. That subsequently led to Spanish colonies in the Americas to first establish their own local governments independent from the center, then claiming autonomy and finally full-fledged independence. Which was followed by Wars of Liberation at which former colonies prevailed against central government forces.

An analogous process began to take place in Russia after Russian defeat against Germany in the First World War. Given enough time Germans would have reorganized Eastern Europe, the process they already started by establishing an independent Ukrainian Republic in 1918, for example. Due to a power vacuum in the imperial centre the rest of the Russian Empire also started disintegrating with various regions declaring their independent republics. The situation was very similar to Spanish America in the early 19th century.

But German defeat on the Western Front gave Bolsheviks the breathing space to re-conquer those independent republics and reestablish the Russian Empire, albeit under a different name. That was meant to be an important turning point in history, but unlike in Latin America, in Russia history failed to turn. Moreover, instead of helping the secessionist regions againt the imperial center, like they did during Spanish American Wars of Independence, this time the Western powers, especially the U.S., helped the struggling Bolsheviks with material and financial aid during the early 1920s thereby facilitating their grip on power.

However history moves on instead of twists and turns. One can thwart and delay the natural historical processes but cannot abolish them. The much delayed process of Russian disintegration will eventually be completed. And it will most likely follow along Latin American lines. The main driving force behind Latin American independence were local born elites of Spanish descent called "Creoles". Despite being of Spanish extraction, with time they came to view themselves distinctly from Iberian Spaniards. This feeling of distinctness by the local Creole elites combined with the presence of the autochtonous Amerindian elements is what gave rise to the various Latin American nations. It didn't happen in an instant. The whole process was preceded by decades of growing discontent with the imperial policy. French occupation of Iberia was just the trigger that let it all burst out.

The same is true about Russia. The "Russians" of Siberia, the Far East, the Ural region and the North West are very different from each other to the extent that they might be considered as separate (proto)-nations. One should therefore not be deceived by the apparent uniformity of the Russian population. Also just like in Spanish America of the 19th century, there's a growing discontent of the local populations in the regions with Moscow's rapacious policy, which by all means can be called "colonial". At some point, sooner or later, this will inevitably all burst out like it did in Spanish America and different nations will emerge on the Russian territory, most likely led by their Russian "Creole" and autochtonous elites. Siberians, Uralians and Ingrians, will be the "Russian" equivalents of Argentineans, Mexicans and Colombians. United by one language and culture, but aware of each other's distinctness.