Baltic-Black Sea Union (Intermarium) as the vanguard to dismantle Russia
Why Eastern Europe must take initiative, become self-reliant and confront Russia collectively
This is the transcript of the speech I gave at the 8th Forum of Free Nations of Post-Russia that took place in London & Paris
When we speak about the potential reorganization of the post-Russian space in the future, we must realize that Eastern Europe is best positioned to accomplish this historical task, for a number of reasons. Firstly, better, and more acutely than anyone else in the world, Eastern European countries are aware of the true nature of Russia and the threat it represents. Moreover, due to cultural proximity, knowledge of the Russian language and Russian realities in general, Eastern Europeans are best positioned to be the guarantors of security within that Eurasian space, at the very least what lies west of Urals, and bring it to the realm of European civilization.
In the early ‘90s when countries of Central-Eastern Europe freed themselves from the Russian yoke, Western European countries like France, Germany, UK assisted them with their integration into the European family, thanks to which countries like Poland, Baltic States and others have become thriving societies with highly skilled populations. And now, in these historical times, Eastern Europe has matured enough to take the initiative and bring the torch of Western Civilization further to the east.
Having said all this, we must be aware that Russia’s collapse and disintegration is a process that will take time and can only be achieved if facilitated by a coordinated external effort. Yet at the same time, we must also consider that historically the West has often shown leniency towards Russia, and in fact, over the past century, has repeatedly rescued it when it was on the verge of collapse. The fear of confrontation or instability in Russia has always been the main driver of the West's attitude. Consequently, the West has typically opted for a cautious approach, even when Russia's actions seemed morally indefensible.
Even now, during the war in Ukraine, the West's response has been primarily reactive, prioritizing avoiding confrontation with Russia rather than supporting Ukraine robustly. It’s just repeated brutal transgressions by Russia have gradually, but still not completely, eroded the West’s goodwill.
Of course, we want Western countries to develop a firmer and uncompromising stance towards Russia, and to have an attitude devoid of any naïve expectations. But it also needs to be understood that many in the West still harbor deeply ingrained sympathies for Russia and are often inclined to overlook its blatant transgressions, likening them simply to misdemeanors of a wayward child.
For instance, it's telling that in the ‘90s the U.S. showed concern over the dissolution of the Soviet Union and pressured Ukraine against independence. Also, instead of demanding Russia disarm its nuclear arsenal, the U.S. urged Ukraine to transfer its nuclear weapons to Russia. The U.S.'s pro-Russian sympathies were evident when President Bill Clinton downplayed Russia's actions in Chechnya, and even went so far as to liken the Chechen freedom fighters to the Confederates of the American Civil War.
Eastern Europeans therefore must become self-reliant and formidable enough to counter Russia without primarily depending on Western help. They must think and plan long-term, getting ready for prolonged confrontation and a mission of a larger civilizational importance. Under the most optimistic scenario, even if Russia is decisively defeated in the current war and Ukraine reclaims its pre-2014 territories, this won’t be the end of the struggle. What is needed is a more coordinated effort by the Eastern European countries. They must come together as a unified block and their societies must be animated by the historical task that lies ahead of them, namely solving the Russian problem and reorganizing that vast Eurasian space. It is therefore about time to revive the vision of the Baltic Black Sea Union, the Intermarium, first articulated by Józef Piłsudski during the interwar period, which imagined a unified front of territories from the erstwhile Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Eastern Europeans must realize that they’re entering a prolonged struggle against Russia, reminiscent of the Wars of the Holy League against the Ottoman Empire in the 17th century after the failed Ottoman Siege of Vienna, which, by the way, historically is equivalent to the failed Siege of Kyiv by Russians in 2022.
At this next stage of the struggle, powerhouses like the U.S., U.K., Germany, and France will likely refuse to engage deeply. However, history suggests that determined coalitions of Central-Eastern European nations can challenge and even defeat larger empires. The Holy League, which was comprised of Habsburg Austria, Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and Kingdom of Hungary, defeated the Ottoman Empire in the Great Turkish War, without the military support of the most powerful European state of the time, namely France, who actually even rather sympathized with the Ottomans during the conflict. Yet, the alliance triumphed, leading to the Treaty of Karlowitz in 1699, which expelled the Ottomans from Central-Eastern Europe.
This precedent should inspire Eastern European nations in their dealings with Russia. While some support may come from Western countries, and that would obviously be very welcome, Eastern Europe should be proactive in its efforts and face Russia collectively.
Eastern Europe faces the challenge of militarily confronting Russia, countering Western tendencies towards appeasement, and supporting internal dissent within Russia. This necessitates Eastern European nations like Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, and possibly others, to collaborate closely in multiple areas.
First, these countries must develop self-reliant military-industrial complexes, individually or jointly. The goal must be to have the combined might to be able to defeat Russia in a conventional offensive war. In this regard, while Poland's recent acquisitions from the U.S. and South Korea bolster its defenses, full security will come only when countries like Poland and Ukraine can produce their own weapons, from tanks to long-range missiles. This independence will reduce reliance on conditions attached to external arms supplies, as currently seen with prohibition for Ukraine to strike targets inside of Russia with Western weapons.
Additionally, having an indigenous arms industry serves another critical goal, namely, to aid potential liberation movements within Russia. Eastern Europe must not only be capable of confronting Russia but also have the surplus weaponry to support internal resistance groups within it. Given that nations typically can't re-export purchased weapons, a self-sufficient arms industry becomes indispensable for these purposes.
The potential for internal conflict within Russia is critical to understand. Historically, Western countries tend to prioritize Russian stability over support for secessionist movements, as was evident during the Chechen Wars, for example. They are likely to side with the Russian central government and may even obstruct attempts at independence. It will therefore be up to Eastern Europeans to back these freedom fighters, while also diplomatically countering any Western resistance.
Another essential front is propaganda. Eastern Europeans must continually persuade the West to adopt a firm stance against Russia and advocate for strategies that induce instability within its borders, aiming for Russia's eventual disintegration.
Russia has long influenced Western narratives through media outlets like Russia Today and online campaigns. To counter this, Eastern Europe needs its own equivalent media outlets to convey its perspective to the Western public. Eastern Europeans should also amplify their presence online through influencers, bloggers, and advocacy campaigns.
Ultimately, Eastern Europe, led by a Ukraine-Poland alliance, has the historic task of reshaping the Eurasian region west of the Urals. To accomplish this, bold political decisions and also the right societal mindset are essential. The aim shouldn't be merely achieving Western standards of living. Particularly Ukraine but also other Eastern European societies should emphasize military preparedness and be animated by loftier civilizational goals, like destroying Russia once and for all, and integrating western Eurasia into European Civilization. This necessitates a militarily advanced society but shouldn't neglect civilian aspects. A unified approach, combining military and civilian advancements in areas like science and education will be crucial in this regard.
Moreover, Eastern Europeans must, at any cost, avoid internal disputes, whether intra or inter-country. Despite the challenges and potential fatigue, they must keep their determination and focus.
If Eastern Europe succeeds in this civilizational mission, the benefits will be immense also for the West. Instead of Russia, which, has time and again, proven its deeply held hatred and belligerence towards Western Civilization, it will be Eastern Europe that will administer and provide stability within that large Eurasian space. Differently from Russia however, Eastern Europe is part of Western Civilization, and its societies are imbued with love towards the West. Therefore, under such a new configuration, when dealing with Eurasia, the West will have a cordial friend as point of reference, unlike now, a hateful and embittered enemy in the form of Russia.
Historically, Eastern Europe has managed to prevail over formidable empires, but only when it was focused and united. And conversely, internal disputes and disunity have typically resulted in Eastern European nations getting overrun by invaders, eventually losing their independence. Thus, now in these fateful times, lessons of history must serve as a useful guide for future action.